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The 66-year-old Fed boss has a losing record on Wall Street as it pertains to the market’s reaction to Fed’s statements and his words. He has had two winning days out of the past 11 meetings, with the only positive gains for the market coming in January when policy makers paused a string of rate increases, MarketWatch’s William Watts has noted, and last month when Powell & Co. set the stage for Wednesday’s move.
The total value of equity-backed securities in the United States rose over 600% in the 25 years between 1989 and 2012 as market capitalization expanded from $2,790 billion to $18,668 billion. Direct ownership of stock by individuals rose slightly from 17.8% in 1992 to 17.9% in 2007, with the median value of these holdings rising from $14,778 to $17,000. Indirect participation in the form of retirement accounts rose from 39.3% in 1992 to 52.6% in 2007, with the median value of these accounts more than doubling from $22,000 to $45,000 in that time. Rydqvist, Spizman, and Strebulaev attribute the differential growth in direct and indirect holdings to differences in the way each are taxed in the United States. Investments in pension funds and 401ks, the two most common vehicles of indirect participation, are taxed only when funds are withdrawn from the accounts. Conversely, the money used to directly purchase stock is subject to taxation as are any dividends or capital gains they generate for the holder. In this way the current tax code incentivizes individuals to invest indirectly.
If SPY can reclaim the 20-day, then another test of $300 to $302 is in the cards. The 100-day perfectly correlates with the 2018 highs, but marks a big level. Because below this mark, there’s not an immediate level of support in play. $280 has been notable in 2019, but just below near $276 is the 38.2% retracement for the one-year range, with the 200-day moving average at $276.59. How Do You Quote Someone?
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A 'soft' EMH has emerged which does not require that prices remain at or near equilibrium, but only that market participants not be able to systematically profit from any momentary market 'inefficiencies'. Moreover, while EMH predicts that all price movement (in the absence of change in fundamental information) is random (i.e., non-trending), many studies have shown a marked tendency for the stock market to trend over time periods of weeks or longer. Various explanations for such large and apparently non-random price movements have been promulgated. For instance, some research has shown that changes in estimated risk, and the use of certain strategies, such as stop-loss limits and value at risk limits, theoretically could cause financial markets to overreact. But the best explanation seems to be that the distribution of stock market prices is non-Gaussian (in which case EMH, in any of its current forms, would not be strictly applicable).