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Analysts usually upgrade their earnings estimates for high-momentum stocks more than low-momentum stocks, creating an overly bullish sentiment among investors that could often make the high-momentum stocks very crowded. That behavior has moderated over recent months, noted McCarthy, and the momentum strategy has become less crowded since the fourth quarter last year, though still above historical levels.
Why the difference? Part of the reason is that the Invesco Momentum ETF is a long-only portfolio—it has no short bets that can go against it. The rest of the difference can be attributed to the timing and frequency of its rebalances: The Invesco Momentum ETF rebalanced only twice a year in March and last September, while the earlier-mentioned long-short strategy does it quarterly, the latest ones in February and last November.
Finally, the other factor: risk tolerance. The stock market goes up and down, and if you’re prone to panicking when it does the latter, you’re better off investing slightly more conservatively, with a lighter allocation to stocks. Not sure? We have a risk tolerance quiz — and more information about how to make this decision — in our article about what to invest in.
Barchart calculates a custom index (the Barchart Market Momentum Index) which is used as an indicator of overall change in the markets. The index reflects the movement of more established stocks: those with SEC filings, with 6 months of trading activity, and with price above $2.00. A high value means the market is moving up, where as a negative value implies the market is down today.